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Viterbi Algorithm

This is an 'dishonest casino' example from Durbin, et al. 'Biological Sequence Analysis' book. A casino used two types of dice: one is a 'fair' one that has equal chance to all six numbers, and the other is a 'loaded' one that has high chance of number 6 than the others. We have a sequence of dice numbers from the casino, and want to estimate when a dealer exchanged the dice.

We assume that the Hidden Markov Model of this example as below:


As you see, both emission probability and transition probability are given.

[Emission probability]
Fair:   1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
Loaded: 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5

[Transition probability]
F -> F : 0.95
F -> L : 0.05
L -> L : 0.90
L -> F : 0.10